Truck Driver Shortage 2026: What Port of Virginia Shippers Need to Know

The trucking industry is facing a workforce challenge that has been building for years, and 2026 marks a turning point. After several years of relative stability in driver availability, the United States has officially entered another driver shortage cycle. For shippers moving cargo through the Port of Virginia, understanding this shift is essential to maintaining reliable supply chains.

At Century Express Virginia, we have called the Port of Virginia home since 2007. Our team has seen freight markets rise and fall, regulations come and go, and capacity swing from surplus to scarcity. The current driver shortage is different from previous cycles because it combines demographic pressures, regulatory changes, and a tightening freight market all at once. Here is what shippers need to know and how to prepare.

The Numbers Behind the Shortage

The American Trucking Associations estimates the current driver shortfall at approximately 82,000 positions nationwide. That number has been climbing steadily since the pandemic disruption, and recent revisions to Bureau of Labor Statistics data revealed the freight recession was deeper than previously understood. The industry lost roughly 122,000 positions from its October 2022 peak, and the recovery is happening into a labor market that simply cannot keep pace.

More than 39,000 carriers and nearly 50,000 drivers have exited the market since 2022. For shippers at the Port of Virginia, this means fewer trucks competing for loads and more pressure on the carriers that remain. The math is straightforward: when driver supply shrinks and freight demand grows, capacity tightens and rates follow.

Regulatory Changes Are Accelerating the Gap

The shortage is not purely demographic. A federal rule that took effect in March 2026 now prohibits asylum seekers, refugees, and DACA recipients from obtaining or renewing commercial driver’s licenses. Foreign-born drivers account for nearly one in six truckers in the United States, and this policy change removes a significant portion of the potential workforce.

Smaller fleets are particularly exposed. Roughly 92% of trucking companies operate ten trucks or fewer, and many of these operations rely on immigrant drivers to fill seats. When combined with stricter English language proficiency enforcement across state lines and tighter CDL licensing standards in multiple states, the regulatory environment is shrinking the available driver pool faster than recruitment efforts can offset.

For port drayage operations specifically, this matters because drayage requires drivers with specialized knowledge of terminal procedures, chassis management, and the coordination required to move containers efficiently. Losing experienced drayage drivers is not easily remedied by hiring long-haul truckers unfamiliar with port operations.

Capacity Is Tightening Across the Board

The freight market has moved out of its multi-year bottoming phase into an early-cycle environment where tightening capacity is pushing rates higher. According to industry data tracked by FreightWaves and DAT Freight and Analytics, truckload spot and contract rates hit two-year highs in March 2026. National linehaul spot rates are running approximately 27% above year-prior levels as of early May.

The Outbound Tender Rejection Index, which measures how often carriers reject contracted loads in favor of higher-paying alternatives, reached 14.2% in March 2026. A year earlier, that figure sat at 8.5%. When carriers reject more contracted freight, it signals they have better options elsewhere, typically on the spot market. For shippers, this means route guides built on last year’s pricing may no longer hold.

Regional imbalances are becoming more pronounced. The Southeast, Texas, and parts of the Mountain West are experiencing the sharpest capacity constraints. Virginia, as a major East Coast logistics hub with direct Atlantic access and strong rail connectivity, sits in a region where these pressures are building. Shippers who have relied on abundant capacity and competitive rates will need to adapt their strategies.

The Workforce Is Aging Faster Than It Is Being Replaced

Beyond regulations and market cycles, a structural demographic issue underpins this shortage. The average age of a U.S. truck driver is approximately 46 years old. The industry will need to hire roughly 1.2 million new drivers over the next decade just to replace retirees and keep pace with freight demand. That works out to approximately 120,000 new drivers per year.

Large truckload carriers still report annual driver turnover rates between 90 and 95 percent. More concerning, 35 percent of newly hired drivers quit within their first 90 days. The pipeline of qualified replacements has not kept pace with departures, and the demographic curve will continue to tighten capacity and sustain elevated rates well into the next freight cycle.

At Century Express Virginia, we have worked hard to build a different kind of operation. Our owner-operators are the heart of our company, and we are proud to have the lowest turnover rates for drivers in the region. We offer competitive pay, comprehensive benefits, and a commitment to investing in both our drivers and our equipment. When drivers stay, service quality remains consistent, and shippers benefit from experienced professionals who know the Port of Virginia inside and out.

What This Means for Port of Virginia Shippers

For importers, exporters, beneficial cargo owners, and third-party logistics providers moving freight through Virginia’s marine terminals, the driver shortage has practical implications worth addressing now rather than later.

Drayage availability may tighten. As the driver pool shrinks, carriers become more selective about the freight they accept. Shippers with challenging pickup windows, frequent detention issues, or inconsistent volume may find it harder to secure reliable drayage capacity. Working with an established carrier that has strong relationships within the port community becomes more valuable when trucks are in short supply.

Rates are likely to continue climbing. Spot rates have posted seven consecutive months of gains, and contract rates are following. Shippers still operating on pricing negotiated during the freight recession may face sticker shock when renewing agreements. Building yard storage flexibility into your supply chain can help avoid demurrage charges when drayage capacity is temporarily constrained.

Service reliability matters more than ever. When capacity is tight, carriers can afford to be selective about who they work with. Shippers that offer fast load times, flexible scheduling, and consistent volume will receive priority over those that do not. The hidden costs of a tight market are often worse than the visible ones: missed appointments, detention fees, and last-minute spot coverage that accumulates when planned capacity disappears.

Strategies for Navigating the Shortage

Shippers can take several practical steps to protect their supply chains as the driver shortage deepens.

Prioritize relationships over transactions. Contract relationships with trusted carriers provide stability that spot market dependency cannot match. When capacity tightens, carriers honor commitments to partners they know and trust. At Century Express Virginia, we have built our reputation on relationships, leveraging our extensive network within the port community to efficiently manage cargo through Virginia’s marine terminals.

Make your freight attractive to carriers. In a tight market, drivers and carriers have options. Facilities with quick turn times, reasonable appointment windows, and professional treatment of drivers will secure capacity more easily than those with reputations for delays. If your warehouse has chronic detention issues, addressing them now will pay dividends when capacity constraints peak.

Build flexibility into your supply chain. Consider how transloading services can provide alternatives when direct drayage capacity is constrained. Transferring cargo between containers and trailers at a facility near the port can reduce reliance on specific equipment types and create scheduling flexibility. Our transloading services, combined with drayage and customer service, make Century Express Virginia a one-stop solution for shippers who need options.

Plan for refrigerated and hazmat complexity. Specialized freight faces additional pressure because the driver pool for refrigerated drayage and hazmat drayage is smaller than the general trucking workforce. Drivers with hazmat endorsements or reefer experience are particularly valuable, and capacity for these services will tighten faster than standard dry freight. Building longer lead times into shipments requiring specialized handling will help avoid last-minute scrambles.

Leverage rail connections. Hampton Roads benefits from excellent rail connectivity with good transit times and well-run ramp operations. Rail drayage can provide cost-effective alternatives for freight moving to or from inland destinations. As a UIIA member with financial bonds in place with the railroads, Century Express Virginia can help shippers tap into intermodal options that reduce dependence on over-the-road trucking.

Heavy Cargo Requires Additional Planning

Shippers moving overweight or oversized containers face unique challenges in a tight driver market. Heavy cargo permitting requires specialized equipment and drivers familiar with permit requirements. We maintain blanket permits in Virginia and can secure permits in surrounding states when needed. Our fleet of specialized equipment, including 20/40 triaxles, flatbeds, and step decks, ensures we can handle even the heaviest containerized cargo.

When driver availability is constrained, having a carrier with the right equipment already in place becomes critical. Shippers who need to source specialized chassis or permitted drivers on short notice will find fewer options and higher costs.

The Century Express Virginia Perspective

Since 2007, we have built our business on the belief that attitude makes the difference. Our team brings diverse backgrounds in ocean carriers, air freight, domestic transportation, and brokerage. We leverage these abilities to provide solutions that keep freight moving, even when market conditions turn challenging.

The driver shortage is real, and its effects will be felt throughout the freight industry for years to come. But shippers who prepare now, building relationships with reliable carriers, creating supply chain flexibility, and treating drivers and carriers as partners rather than commodities, will navigate this cycle better than those who wait.

We are accessible seven days a week and are here to assist you with moving your freight through the Port of Virginia. Whether you need port drayage, specialized equipment, transloading, or yard storage, our team is ready to work for you.

Interested in how Century Express Virginia can help you navigate the changing freight market? Contact our team today and let us put our Port of Virginia expertise to work for your supply chain!